Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 52-53°F on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x783a1e59cc1391ca298dfd42acba26a09576e2301a249d243dc369a05b0d3b3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked Yes | 23c | 704.18$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.75 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…19c4backed Yes | 11c | 484.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.39 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…fcdfbacked No | 60c | 406.59$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.6 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +14.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 15c | 248.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…09ebbacked No | 78c | 183.23$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed No | 69c | 159.33$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 47c | 150.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.36 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 51c | 116.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.02 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked Yes | 44c | 113.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13cf…4441backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc12…1e02backed No | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed No | 67c | 74.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe855…c225backed No | 55c | 61.61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…363abacked Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd680…c1c4backed Yes | 45c | 55.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +153%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 56c | 55.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb06…d702backed Yes | 46c | 48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6477…707dbacked Yes | 44c | 36.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2894…c2f7backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…d558backed Yes | 40c | 27.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadae…058abacked Yes | 46c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 52-53°F on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 58°F or higher on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 48-49°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 50-51°F on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 54-55°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 56-57°F on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.