NHL · resolved market
KHL: Avangard Omsk vs. Barys Astana
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x786305a8ffd101e85f8e0a881f2dddd29ce7087a4f3cca7017705db5064e888b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Barys Astanaof Avangard Omsk, Barys Astana
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0cb…db0dbacked Barys Astana | 21c | 1,445$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,141.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x647e…92f5backed Avangard Omsk | 79c | 1,210$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Barys Astana | 18c | 1,075$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.49 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…cf22backed Barys Astana | 21c | 882$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa23d…8eaebacked Barys Astana | 23c | 772$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea66…3439backed Barys Astana | 23c | 702$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x163d…8d30backed Avangard Omsk | 79c | 648$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.92 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe70d…f3efbacked Avangard Omsk | 77c | 636$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…04bebacked Barys Astana | 23c | 631$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +130%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Barys Astana | 17c | 624.45$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.29 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cf…a03abacked Avangard Omsk | 77c | 602$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x750c…7d14backed Barys Astana | 20c | 576$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +121.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…5331backed Avangard Omsk | 77c | 521$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ff…106ebacked Avangard Omsk | 80c | 422$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 64cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Barys Astana | 18c | 327.94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.85 | 224 | 43.3%97 W · 127 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d5…c67abacked Avangard Omsk | 79c | 235$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x586c…7667backed Avangard Omsk | 79c | 234$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d3…d7a1backed Avangard Omsk | 80c | 154$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Barys Astana | 20c | 149.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.69 | 292 | 41.1%120 W · 172 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…3592backed Avangard Omsk | 77c | 136$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4afc…82f6backed Avangard Omsk | 77c | 110$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Avangard Omsk | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c70…e9f9backed Avangard Omsk | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0155…a6ffbacked Barys Astana | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 23cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…c7febacked Barys Astana | 23c | 88.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.01 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3630…7f06backed Avangard Omsk | 80c | 77$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Barys Astana | 18c | 75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 274 | 45.6%125 W · 149 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f23…e2c8backed Avangard Omsk | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.