Bundesliga · resolved market
Hertha BSC vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x786fb1de81d1d18506a47bd1ef3ddaa1e93d4fccee0105067a2833782fb71df2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 1,510$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.12 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 29c | 1,236$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.38 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 78c | 1,086$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.11 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 28c | 895$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.11 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 35c | 800$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 75c | 663.36$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.36 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 55c | 525.3$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.99 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 57c | 480.01$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.32 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 34c | 403.66$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.87 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 35c | 282.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.03 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 33c | 258.69$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.89 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 36c | 211.72$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed2…8958backed Over | 72c | 138.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 79c | 94.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 34c | 72.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 33c | 71.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 40c | 63.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Under | 67c | 59.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 56c | 36.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 67c | 25.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hertha BSC vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 3.5this page
- Hertha BSC vs. SV Darmstadt 98: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hertha BSC vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hertha BSC vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hertha BSC vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.