Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Heroic (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x789d2a159a67f4b76ed9fa2d2baa2b7444a98edf5a239f5a311f6ea91aab46e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof Team Spirit, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Team Spirit | 68c | 2,941$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.58 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Heroic | 32c | 1,431$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Heroic | 32c | 1,330$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.74 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Team Spirit | 65c | 1,326$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.07 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Heroic | 35c | 1,160$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.77 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Heroic | 32c | 818.75$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Heroic | 4c | 677.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Heroic | 35c | 188.32$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Heroic | 22c | 166.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d99…3d7dbacked Heroic | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Heroic | 25c | 98.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 436 | 47.5%207 W · 229 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8a…7d24backed Team Spirit | 75c | 80.3$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7127…211bbacked Team Spirit | 68c | 80.16$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910e…29bcbacked Team Spirit | 67c | 79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa766…5c8ebacked Heroic | 41c | 55.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…a4ebbacked Team Spirit | 67c | 29.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…0f1bbacked Team Spirit | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…49e3backed Team Spirit | 70c | 19.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.