Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Syracuse Orange vs. Iowa State Cyclones
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78a4abac51c3db47c77eedc64f466094a7c29fd212115ef71675b95b0970a14f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iowa State Cyclonesof Syracuse Orange, Iowa State Cyclones
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Syracuse Orange | 15c | 29,614$4,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,442.1 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Syracuse Orange | 16c | 4,840$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.48 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Syracuse Orange | 14c | 3,265$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.94 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f7…b542backed Syracuse Orange | 15c | 1,267$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe08…10ebbacked Syracuse Orange | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Syracuse Orange | 12c | 591.3$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.96 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Syracuse Orange | 18c | 275.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -7.3wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…0d33backed Syracuse Orange | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Syracuse Orange | 14c | 193.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…79f6backed Syracuse Orange | 35c | 97.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Syracuse Orange | 16c | 93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Syracuse Orange | 20c | 91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Syracuse Orange | 14c | 88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 349 | 47.9%167 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Syracuse Orange | 19c | 55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 151 | 56.3%85 W · 66 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Syracuse Orange vs. Iowa State Cyclonesthis page
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-9.5)Iowa State Cyclones won
- Syracuse Orange vs. Iowa State Cyclones: O/U 145.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.