Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78a6c2097629612cd9962daf2ba4d86c542b2cbf5bcb6281f0f34a59a5098f7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,861
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,861 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 52c | 1,076$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.12 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 42c | 556.03$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.21 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 37c | 501.98$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.68 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38d7…a061backed No | 66c | 483.22$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 24c | 427.41$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.23 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 53c | 393.06$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.63 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 64c | 390.44$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.82 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 25c | 270.88$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.16 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 259.32$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.23 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 242.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 231.5$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 36c | 169.77$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 75c | 130.87$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 52c | 124.93$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.22 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4d…6e9dbacked Yes | 46c | 114.21$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.12 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d74…0149backed Yes | 53c | 107.03$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 40c | 97.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 51c | 92.53$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 52c | 85.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes | 68c | 84.29$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 82.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 35c | 82.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 52c | 70.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9750…031dbacked No | 51c | 70.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 48c | 63.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…9534backed Yes | 78c | 62.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x809c…4861backed Yes | 64c | 59.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 63c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 20c | 49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5191…0c35backed Yes | 62c | 47.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…91d5backed Yes | 68c | 42.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 73c | 39.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed No | 45c | 38.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed Yes | 59c | 37.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 35.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 66c | 35.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf162…5865backed No | 55c | 32.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 29.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 46c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 61c | 26.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 58c | 25.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 25.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…f990backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 78c | 24.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 63c | 23.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 77c | 20.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcc…788cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…5211backed Yes | 69c | 19.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed No | 68c | 18.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 66c | 17.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 58-59°F on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.