South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Club Puebla win on 2026-04-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78cffb0cc747bd490d19c5eb006f2e437eb5ca895b8a6d8ada46af53b54da802
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x198f…c419backed Yes | 15c | 1,599$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.57 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 67c | 742.42$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.72 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…3409backed Yes | 35c | 710.3$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.11 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 11c | 630.6$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 19c | 586.81$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.54 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 69c | 554.54$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.36 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 79c | 494.07$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.8 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Yes | 18c | 351.45$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.26 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.17per pick | 21cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 64c | 297.33$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.89 | 181 | 60.2%109 W · 72 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 28c | 290.73$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 154 | 24%37 W · 117 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Yes | 31c | 282.31$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.17 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 35c | 274.57$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.1 | 118 | 19.5%23 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 18c | 269.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 212 | 52.4%111 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 27c | 186.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 375 | 40%150 W · 225 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 68c | 177.05$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.02 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 16c | 173.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 138 | 14.5%20 W · 118 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 26c | 160.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked No | 79c | 154.48$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…6b1ebacked Yes | 35c | 139.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 80c | 137.97$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…7e76backed Yes | 36c | 134.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 15c | 133.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Yes | 14c | 100.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 19c | 96.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 79c | 92.41$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked No | 66c | 89.25$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 19c | 74.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 130 | 23.1%30 W · 100 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43bb…c6febacked Yes | 35c | 62.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f86…ef4ebacked No | 67c | 47.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Yes | 35c | 39.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 67c | 34.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 64c | 26.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1f…a168backed No | 67c | 21.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 66c | 16.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 258 | 64.3%166 W · 92 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 77c | 14.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Club Puebla win on 2026-04-21?this page
- Will CF Monterrey vs. Club Puebla end in a draw?No won
- Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-04-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.