Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7913aff312b1f5af1d1494174f1d3cc1a7c60adaa58117156a79e9dc33412a85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Inner Circleof VP.Prodigy, Inner Circle
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,284
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x974f…cd80backed VP.Prodigy | 18c | 1,617$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.46 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Inner Circle | 69c | 742.37$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.39 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked VP.Prodigy | 28c | 686.19$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.96 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked VP.Prodigy | 31c | 495.58$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.63 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Inner Circle | 65c | 318.95$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.63 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed VP.Prodigy | 32c | 248.41$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.72 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4c…935ebacked VP.Prodigy | 26c | 140.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -6.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Inner Circle | 75c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked VP.Prodigy | 23c | 57.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Inner Circle | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked VP.Prodigy | 29c | 40.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked VP.Prodigy | 29c | 40.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -6.5wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…9c7dbacked Inner Circle | 65c | 30.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 367 | 61%224 W · 143 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Inner Circle | 64c | 19.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Inner Circle (BO3) - European Pro League Group BInner Circle won
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Inner Circle - Game 1 WinnerInner Circle won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.