Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Union Berlin win on 2025-11-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x791bc71c32c7b000a4ac24a6cae6800db84906573c5d62110dfbd70aaea376e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 33c | 20,000$6,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,400 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed No | 67c | 19,948$13,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,365.21 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 31c | 10,652$3,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,255.99 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 24c | 3,892$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.36 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 21c | 3,052$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.95 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 73c | 2,604$1,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.81 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 44c | 1,647$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.93 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b3…53b9backed Yes | 34c | 1,501$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.09 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 26c | 1,368$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.96 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed No | 17c | 999.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 32c | 967.7$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.66 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 66c | 802.04$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.34 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347c…525abacked Yes | 32c | 776.82$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.82 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Yes | 33c | 661.12$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.12 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 30c | 617.46$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.95 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 33c | 601.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.68 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Yes | 33c | 590.72$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.78 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3944…6470backed Yes | 34c | 564.26$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.33 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 32c | 500$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 66c | 463.89$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.17 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 69c | 434.78$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 65c | 426.84$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.99 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3439…4f64backed No | 12c | 360.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.58 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee44…0082backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd781…92a0backed Yes | 34c | 295.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 67c | 280.11$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.87 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 45c | 270.47$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.84 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed No | 22c | 197.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x237e…a5f0backed Yes | 33c | 193.76$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.82 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Yes | 29c | 190$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 33c | 176.85$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.49 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76da…30a2backed Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9de2…3adbbacked Yes | 33c | 142.85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.71 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9734…bb94backed No | 33c | 122.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab0…2fe9backed Yes | 76c | 107.13$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed No | 32c | 107$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed No | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 40c | 93.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7f…0d6cbacked Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +121.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked No | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…ca38backed No | 71c | 80$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2e…6200backed No | 22c | 76.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked No | 67c | 71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 87 | 64.4%56 W · 31 L | +10.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed No | 37c | 70.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…c747backed No | 71c | 65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x498e…45e7backed Yes | 33c | 63.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…932abacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…baa4backed Yes | 33c | 60.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed No | 67c | 59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 33c | 58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…afaabacked No | 23c | 56.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497f…da80backed Yes | 33c | 54.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…e730backed No | 69c | 52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 67c | 51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 67c | 48.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…d2cbbacked No | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 119 | 52.1%62 W · 57 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81d8…2b8dbacked No | 32c | 41.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc487…dc86backed Yes | 33c | 39.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…0b39backed No | 71c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…f400backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882e…e757backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed No | 67c | 19.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a44…d80abacked No | 67c | 17.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43a…f530backed No | 71c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc86f…341dbacked Yes | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed No | 67c | 15.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 121 | 62.8%76 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Union Berlin win on 2025-11-23?this page
- Will FC St. Pauli vs. Union Berlin end in a draw?No won
- Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-11-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.