CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: megoshort vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x797726fcce66b81a60cd31837d9a542067a83cec3dd9bd7c9d0bbbfe2cdc89d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ursaof megoshort, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4722…2abfbacked megoshort | 2c | 2,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276b…c0c8backed megoshort | 2c | 2,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +7.9wins | +0.32per pick | 8cpaid | +215.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xda17…abc5backed Ursa | 71c | 1,793$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.34 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8c…f2cebacked Ursa | 72c | 1,412$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.73 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed megoshort | 25c | 1,250$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.95 | 170 | 34.7%59 W · 111 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa16b…b541backed Ursa | 54c | 1,200$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552 | 434 | 55.1%239 W · 195 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…8f93backed megoshort | 3c | 994.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 6cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked megoshort | 41c | 899.73$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.06 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Ursa | 79c | 541.98$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.02 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed megoshort | 27c | 459.81$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.01 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked megoshort | 27c | 387.28$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.99 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked megoshort | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,573 | 35.3%556 W · 1,017 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked megoshort | 33c | 291.25$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.98 | 361 | 51.8%187 W · 174 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed megoshort | 15c | 165.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed megoshort | 26c | 158.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99be…3622backed megoshort | 33c | 158.05$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…c7dbbacked Ursa | 54c | 74.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 362 | 53.3%193 W · 169 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed megoshort | 35c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Ursa | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked megoshort | 33c | 43.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 700 | 36.1%253 W · 447 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed megoshort | 34c | 42.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,109 | 50.5%560 W · 549 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed megoshort | 33c | 42.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed megoshort | 32c | 42.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 247 | 47%116 W · 131 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed megoshort | 34c | 36.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -10.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Ursa | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 644 | 39.8%256 W · 388 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed megoshort | 42c | 27.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 958 | 49.8%477 W · 481 L | -17.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2798…a9c7backed Ursa | 63c | 27.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: megoshort vs Ursa - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: megoshort vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Group StageUrsa won
- Counter-Strike: megoshort vs Ursa - Map 2 WinnerUrsa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.