Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Texas State Bobcats (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79b94aafbb9c8105c2ada972dba59d7d35340cf416e622fae785e4bab57fa986
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas State Bobcatsof Texas State Bobcats, Western Michigan Broncos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Texas State Bobcats | 57c | 4,036$2,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,749.54 | 351 | 51.9%182 W · 169 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Western Michigan Broncos | 43c | 2,299$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.58 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Western Michigan Broncos | 47c | 1,050$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.5 | 407 | 55.8%227 W · 180 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Texas State Bobcats | 53c | 551.63$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.27 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…583abacked Western Michigan Broncos | 44c | 400$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Western Michigan Broncos | 44c | 359.64$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.24 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Western Michigan Broncos | 44c | 241$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.04 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Western Michigan Broncos | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Western Michigan Broncos | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Texas State Bobcats | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Western Michigan Broncos | 47c | 102$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a9…f72ebacked Texas State Bobcats | 53c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…e342backed Texas State Bobcats | 53c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…6070backed Texas State Bobcats | 53c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas State Bobcats (-5.5)this page
- Western Michigan Broncos vs. Texas State BobcatsTexas State Bobcats won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.