Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Western Michigan Broncos vs. Texas State Bobcats
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd3ae4a47cbb2939a15a92070949c705e1818305866264f23f3d8c6ffd33ae68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas State Bobcatsof Western Michigan Broncos, Texas State Bobcats
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Western Michigan Broncos | 30c | 12,065$3,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,643.33 | 896 | 45.9%411 W · 485 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Texas State Bobcats | 70c | 6,212$4,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,878.45 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Texas State Bobcats | 70c | 1,866$1,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.93 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Texas State Bobcats | 69c | 800$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Western Michigan Broncos | 28c | 798.35$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.3 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Texas State Bobcats | 70c | 774$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.2 | 605 | 48.9%296 W · 309 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Texas State Bobcats | 70c | 662$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.6 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Western Michigan Broncos | 25c | 627.09$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.77 | 1,493 | 48.7%727 W · 766 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Texas State Bobcats | 75c | 596.89$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.56 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fa…989ebacked Texas State Bobcats | 70c | 499.64$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.89 | 814 | 53.1%432 W · 382 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Texas State Bobcats | 70c | 498$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.4 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Texas State Bobcats | 72c | 450.07$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.81 | 870 | 47.2%411 W · 459 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Western Michigan Broncos | 5c | 398$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e5…9401backed Western Michigan Broncos | 17c | 299.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Western Michigan Broncos | 31c | 291$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.54 | 383 | 45.4%174 W · 209 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Texas State Bobcats | 72c | 272.42$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.35 | 682 | 54.3%370 W · 312 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed Texas State Bobcats | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 484 | 62.8%304 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Texas State Bobcats | 70c | 142.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Texas State Bobcats | 75c | 118.39$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Western Michigan Broncos | 16c | 101.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Texas State Bobcats | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Texas State Bobcats | 68c | 88.42$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Texas State Bobcats | 69c | 86.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Western Michigan Broncos | 29c | 78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Texas State Bobcats | 70c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Western Michigan Broncos | 24c | 41.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…6613backed Texas State Bobcats | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Texas State Bobcats | 73c | 31.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbba…e95bbacked Texas State Bobcats | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x077a…ec51backed Texas State Bobcats | 67c | 21.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Texas State Bobcats | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 213 | 42.3%90 W · 123 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8f…1f83backed Texas State Bobcats | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 646 | 58.8%380 W · 266 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Western Michigan Broncos vs. Texas State Bobcatsthis page
- Spread: Texas State Bobcats (-5.5)Texas State Bobcats won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.