NHL · resolved market
AHL: Utica Comets vs. Springfield Thunderbirds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a6fe3861f133763ac0007768fd87edf6bad3f906c8bf74feddfd461b7078db3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Springfield Thunderbirdsof Utica Comets, Springfield Thunderbirds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,832 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 44c | 2,719$1,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,527.06 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…172fbacked Utica Comets | 56c | 1,510$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.6 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Utica Comets | 57c | 941.6$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.14 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Utica Comets | 58c | 370.89$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.78 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d3…3128backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 43c | 312.66$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.66 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Utica Comets | 56c | 226.79$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…29dcbacked Utica Comets | 56c | 180$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 43c | 147.62$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.62 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 44c | 138.39$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Utica Comets | 56c | 113$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Springfield Thunderbirds | 42c | 109.81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 179 | 40.2%72 W · 107 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Utica Comets | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Springfield Thunderbirds | 42c | 60.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa049…4314backed Utica Comets | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Springfield Thunderbirds | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Utica Comets | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46bb…cba7backed Utica Comets | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.