NHL · resolved market
DEL: Eisbären Berlin vs. Adler Mannheim
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7af13599331de3757f82b9e7d8430fbf785b9f142599be9cec43c04cfd90580e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Adler Mannheimof Eisbären Berlin, Adler Mannheim
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,421
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,421 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Adler Mannheim | 13c | 433.18$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.6 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Adler Mannheim | 17c | 352.9$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.84 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…572cbacked Eisbären Berlin | 75c | 146.67$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 73 | 63%46 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked Eisbären Berlin | 74c | 137.55$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Adler Mannheim | 26c | 124.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.17 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6955…b7ccbacked Eisbären Berlin | 69c | 96.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Adler Mannheim | 29c | 51.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9f…8e23backed Adler Mannheim | 27c | 50.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ea…1231backed Adler Mannheim | 33c | 46.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Eisbären Berlin | 54c | 44.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Adler Mannheim | 31c | 37.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Adler Mannheim | 56c | 30.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…c990backed Eisbären Berlin | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.