Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Kansas State vs. Cincinnati
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b09ec0efdeb19ce2f326ea2e6c5d1e84d77c8b08c5d27353b9da7dffe95f96f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas Stateof Kansas State, Cincinnati
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Kansas State | 18c | 229.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.5 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…8547backed Kansas State | 28c | 174$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f33…78cabacked Kansas State | 26c | 116$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Cincinnati | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 205 | 48.8%100 W · 105 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5aa…2bf6backed Kansas State | 19c | 97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf471…78dbbacked Kansas State | 25c | 94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aad…6a21backed Cincinnati | 80c | 85$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bd…6ff4backed Cincinnati | 72c | 83$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd173…0b6bbacked Kansas State | 21c | 79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.41 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.41per pick | 43cpaid | +112%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…14debacked Cincinnati | 79c | 79$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x90a2…5347backed Cincinnati | 50c | 76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb25…f9d8backed Cincinnati | 74c | 66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb37…e671backed Kansas State | 21c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 47cpaid | +109%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9798…ce02backed Kansas State | 26c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +57%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f6…fb32backed Kansas State | 27c | 57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80f…be51backed Cincinnati | 75c | 54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e1…2df9backed Kansas State | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd43…de18backed Kansas State | 27c | 48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Cincinnati | 79c | 47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec50…1401backed Kansas State | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaba…9642backed Kansas State | 26c | 45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…29adbacked Kansas State | 26c | 39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4e…2bc5backed Cincinnati | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96f8…e4e8backed Cincinnati | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8343…aebdbacked Cincinnati | 80c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Cincinnati | 74c | 27.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…f423backed Cincinnati | 80c | 27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b8…04eebacked Kansas State | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86b…5970backed Cincinnati | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1422…c3d3backed Cincinnati | 74c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b7…9ec9backed Cincinnati | 74c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ab…0406backed Cincinnati | 74c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bc4ebacked Cincinnati | 80c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x095a…9ff7backed Cincinnati | 74c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34eb…892dbacked Cincinnati | 72c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c58…736fbacked Cincinnati | 74c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7959…e913backed Cincinnati | 73c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…284bbacked Cincinnati | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc51c…ce3fbacked Cincinnati | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf3…e1c2backed Cincinnati | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd49d…1877backed Cincinnati | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x723d…bb54backed Cincinnati | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed00…7b8cbacked Cincinnati | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15cc…281fbacked Cincinnati | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4860…9e77backed Cincinnati | 74c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…cf9dbacked Cincinnati | 74c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x008c…8c57backed Cincinnati | 72c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea92…c930backed Cincinnati | 72c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.