Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Michigan Wolverines (W)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b109e3423d001871d05197c677bcf45f1ce88bd1c969aa2f6c0659cc7fbdd33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan Wolverinesof North Carolina State Wolfpack, Michigan Wolverines
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,375 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x161a…4103backed Michigan Wolverines | 74c | 2,994$2,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.55 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked North Carolina State Wolfpack | 26c | 1,547$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.54 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…8e56backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 10c | 1,255$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.47 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 11c | 1,145$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.18 | 104 | 37.5%39 W · 65 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 9c | 955.84$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.72 | 1,446 | 43.4%627 W · 819 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 26c | 570.37$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.19 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked North Carolina State Wolfpack | 11c | 403.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…fcf3backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 9c | 250$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 8c | 165.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked North Carolina State Wolfpack | 26c | 59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x864f…ebe6backed Michigan Wolverines | 74c | 59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc2…b3b6backed Michigan Wolverines | 74c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.