Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c02c7abecbffd3072247e9487eeb5ce64b7dee1e65e50321f95a6db03ab0e76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 19c | 5,959$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.84 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 73c | 234.46$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.27 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 13c | 208.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 7c | 206.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 13c | 199.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 13c | 171.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 11c | 126.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 19c | 115.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 22c | 81.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 81.32$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 72$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 25c | 72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 16c | 60.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 75c | 56.59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 25c | 53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 77c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…c1fdbacked No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 75c | 19.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 80c | 13.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.65 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C or higher on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.