Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf987fd25ec67f6c94712f81c45ed14e9014800a251f3746e221a2990e1417731
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 34c | 1,173$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.54 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 28c | 639.61$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.16 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 20c | 499.71$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.28 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4577…f436backed No | 24c | 320.92$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.85 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 73c | 253.29$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.66 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 253.03$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.89 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e37…a7d5backed Yes | 56c | 194.01$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 24c | 176.2$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.96 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 164.35$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.69 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…b868backed No | 14c | 162.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 71c | 161.16$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 75c | 160.17$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 158.38$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.71 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 13c | 150.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 76c | 150$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.2 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 53c | 144.9$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.48 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 127.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 18c | 127$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…26ffbacked Yes | 47c | 123.94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.29 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 25c | 121.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 117$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 64c | 115.83$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.65 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 25c | 115.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.08 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 58c | 108.29$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.39 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 53c | 96.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 55c | 89.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 48c | 88.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x100c…edc9backed Yes | 34c | 81.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.74 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 72c | 76.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 46c | 71.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 26c | 64.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 64c | 64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 79c | 58.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 74c | 58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 35c | 56.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 20c | 51.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 28c | 51.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x889d…55c2backed No | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 23c | 48.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 34c | 43.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 66c | 43.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…9844backed No | 78c | 42.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 47c | 42.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 66c | 40.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…dc27backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +210%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 55c | 38.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 38c | 38.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 37c | 37.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 65c | 36.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 31.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…6049backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 39c | 29.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 47c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 50c | 28.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 56c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 76c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 62c | 21.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 50c | 21.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 76c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 64c | 18.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 68c | 17.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b02…2433backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C or higher on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.