Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c0b9135d1f17d1121b9956d475ce176a726f7cb29cd033cf9929056272855db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,672
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,672 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 2c | 5,505$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes | 9c | 3,820$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.83 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 7c | 3,339$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.39 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 6c | 1,242$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.13 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 35c | 541.42$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.8 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 45c | 494.96$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.73 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d72…9461backed Yes | 33c | 433.07$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.39 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 5c | 242.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 18c | 236$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c2…0c32backed No | 52c | 191.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.13 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed No | 55c | 189.89$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.57 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 165$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 121.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 53c | 112.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 79c | 110.79$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 17c | 89.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b18…bd24backed Yes | 17c | 87.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 30c | 78.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 45c | 46.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb563…26bfbacked Yes | 66c | 41.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 41c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 60c | 30.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…e31abacked No | 79c | 25.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…61abbacked No | 65c | 19.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 62c | 18.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.