Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Boise State Broncos (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c5dbafd40e59182cc9d0dcccaab6e0cf3fc4628ba010609142c61aac79a51e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UNLV Runnin' Rebelsof Boise State Broncos, UNLV Runnin' Rebels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 6 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3e0…3c1ebacked Boise State Broncos | 46c | 311.48$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Boise State Broncos | 43c | 271.05$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.55 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…2687backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1d…32fabacked UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 54c | 158.12$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.74 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…ed48backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 54c | 153.36$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.55 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c00…741dbacked UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 57c | 105.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boise State Broncos (-11.5)this page
- Spread: Boise State Broncos (-10.5)UNLV Runnin' Rebels won
- Spread: Boise State Broncos (-9.5)UNLV Runnin' Rebels won
- UNLV Runnin' Rebels vs. Boise State BroncosUNLV Runnin' Rebels won
- UNLV Runnin' Rebels vs. Boise State Broncos: O/U 153.5Over won
- UNLV Runnin' Rebels vs. Boise State Broncos: O/U 155.5Over won
- UNLV Runnin' Rebels vs. Boise State Broncos: O/U 156.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.