Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c8c2edf642584080bec5152472a39d16c31b67bdbb9948a54ab5bd0b4ef1c0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 4c | 535.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 32c | 385.16$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 74c | 231.82$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.78 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbf…aa75backed Yes | 35c | 222.88$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.86 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 30c | 219.47$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.24 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 203.83$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 178.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 7c | 175.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 68c | 153.82$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 150.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c13abacked Yes | 31c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 72c | 83.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 74.23$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 61.04$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed No | 71c | 57.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…234ebacked Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 49.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 23c | 47.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked No | 72c | 41.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 68c | 41.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 73c | 34.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…acf6backed No | 77c | 33.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 71c | 30.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dad…147cbacked No | 71c | 24.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 36 | 77.8%28 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 70c | 20.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 66c | 20.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 18.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.