Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c93fb9c04e56475d496c8a5d8e87b9d36459e8fba9677c12d15aa6199cecbb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 311.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 69c | 293.66$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.58 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 6c | 292.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 54c | 250$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.1 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 11c | 206.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a33…c81ebacked No | 26c | 132.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 17c | 117.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.98 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 13c | 117.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 20c | 110.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.82 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…3a35backed Yes | 29c | 103.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.7 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 17c | 89.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.38 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 23c | 84.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 78c | 79.55$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 22c | 64.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 33c | 61.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…eae5backed No | 22c | 57.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 22c | 48.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…d735backed Yes | 79c | 37.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.32per pick | 56cpaid | +145.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 61c | 32.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 19.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…6884backed No | 79c | 12.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.