Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ca616855717716d1a0430e2b6129ebac36f709b5de8fd768bad441e417347da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 324.65$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.96 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 77c | 253.32$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 64c | 167.45$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.28 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 36c | 130$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed Yes | 43c | 121.53$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 41c | 75.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 22c | 66.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 63c | 66.23$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 63c | 63.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 40c | 62.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2006…7e1bbacked Yes | 29c | 60.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 60c | 57.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 38c | 54.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 53.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 45.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 41c | 44.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 60c | 38.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 39c | 36.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 34c | 35.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 72c | 34.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 72c | 34.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 60c | 31.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 29.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…652abacked Yes | 40c | 27.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 42c | 25.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 76c | 24.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6e…8115backed No | 65c | 24.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 72c | 21.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C or higher on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.