Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cf99ff4882e22df9dc31badc471357df24bc2dbcac180ea29ab8b76aa68be75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,213
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,213 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 307.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 75c | 271.34$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.46 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed Yes | 67c | 137.49$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.15 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…29e8backed Yes | 10c | 135.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 22c | 124.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 34c | 119.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.28 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed No | 36c | 96.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.68 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 57c | 83.66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 43c | 66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 63.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1928…1171backed Yes | 77c | 61.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 25c | 54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…3289backed Yes | 30c | 48.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 29c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 41.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 40.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 66c | 30.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…33b5backed Yes | 69c | 28.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 65c | 26.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…b25bbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 46c | 24.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 46c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 79c | 18.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabcc…8ac7backed No | 75c | 16.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.