Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbb8be31691d2011402a358c2cad9f5bf081d5406d846bc75ebee259bb4a98b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 48c | 347.77$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.68 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 347.07$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 52c | 223.96$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.46 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 218.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 57c | 141.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.61 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 52c | 128.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.07 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 10c | 124.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 58c | 117.39$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 115$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.07 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 109.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 28c | 102$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 76c | 99.64$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.77 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 53c | 97.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 50c | 81.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 56c | 77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 74.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 32c | 72.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…29e8backed Yes | 38c | 54.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 57c | 51.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…453fbacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…31e3backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 73c | 46.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 38c | 43.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 42.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 41c | 40.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 43c | 36.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 35.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06de…cf4cbacked No | 50c | 32.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0253…bcadbacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 58c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 31.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 46c | 31.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…cd7fbacked No | 65c | 28.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff3e…953fbacked No | 51c | 24.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 56c | 23.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 53c | 22.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc969…0377backed Yes | 51c | 21.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 85 | 12.9%11 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 68c | 18.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 62c | 17.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.