CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs kONO.ECF (BO3) - JB Pro League Season 2 Group stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d50d6c3a334df7ee9b622af4aed567a57f5f30666a0e0a5c668fcbf6f2fbfc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ARCREDof ARCRED, kONO.ECF
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5984…76ebbacked kONO.ECF | 30c | 1,084$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.27 | 526 | 36.5%192 W · 334 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed ARCRED | 69c | 867.41$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.21 | 872 | 44.8%391 W · 481 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed kONO.ECF | 32c | 755.78$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.69 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…01babacked ARCRED | 70c | 570$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40fc…498dbacked ARCRED | 70c | 442.86$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.86 | 144 | 41%59 W · 85 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked kONO.ECF | 31c | 231.93$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.7 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked ARCRED | 70c | 190.73$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 543 | 48.6%264 W · 279 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…a5c9backed kONO.ECF | 30c | 188.23$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16fd…b4d3backed kONO.ECF | 30c | 177.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.36 | 298 | 40.3%120 W · 178 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602a…9a6ebacked kONO.ECF | 35c | 110.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…2a73backed ARCRED | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f83…360bbacked ARCRED | 79c | 88.66$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed ARCRED | 72c | 83.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed ARCRED | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 328 | 45.1%148 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked ARCRED | 72c | 57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 464 | 47.6%221 W · 243 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc076…d987backed ARCRED | 78c | 46.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x680d…98b8backed kONO.ECF | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 69.3%52 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed ARCRED | 66c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 1,378 | 45.2%623 W · 755 L | +17.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked ARCRED | 72c | 15.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked ARCRED | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 147 | 28.6%42 W · 105 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.