Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-02-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d8d34e6daa2d68e3a2130f931a5fd33a4cdb5693f2ff41b2bc8b8ff647097cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed No | 72c | 7,000$5,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a09…db1cbacked No | 74c | 6,839$5,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,795.85 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 28c | 6,688$1,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,872.76 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 5,019$1,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180.56 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 14c | 1,829$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.09 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 1c | 1,424$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 73c | 1,021$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.34 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 24c | 1,004$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.52 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 9c | 432.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 29c | 340$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed No | 79c | 252.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…2f0ebacked No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…c751backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 21c | 171.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a27…b95dbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…4747backed Yes | 11c | 109.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 27c | 105.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…70bcbacked Yes | 28c | 68.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Yes | 29c | 66.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ea…c293backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 28c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a2…0532backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +4.8wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed No | 73c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e3…4bd5backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-02-21?this page
- Will FC Schalke 04 vs. 1. FC Magdeburg end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-02-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.