Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on February 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d8deed647235849f385aae0c287ba72c51e9f983a7fadeeeef81b09a5117361
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x261f…2fa4backed No | 4c | 20,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5b…dec2backed No | 4c | 14,000$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.92 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2191…d614backed No | 1c | 3,210$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 2,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 79c | 1,730$1,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.69 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11f…77bebacked No | 10c | 912.55$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 23c | 665.8$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 78c | 634.05$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.42 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc876…8711backed No | 2c | 524.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b8…5ff0backed No | 5c | 438.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 416.56$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.06 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…4fecbacked No | 4c | 394.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4561…1fe0backed No | 58c | 323.63$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.01 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e6…0f82backed Yes | 27c | 281.7$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.89 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 77c | 193.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.88 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 23c | 180.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.42 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 10c | 147.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 72c | 132.1$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.11 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe67b…f8b2backed Yes | 29c | 105.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.73 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0d…dc8fbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 77c | 88.39$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 64.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed Yes | 72c | 56.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…3578backed Yes | 31c | 56.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 46.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…0c4abacked Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 61c | 41.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 32c | 35.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 71c | 31.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb8…f592backed Yes | 41c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 69c | 30.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked No | 58c | 26.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccd…357bbacked Yes | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…1611backed No | 72c | 22.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd266…f250backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…55eebacked Yes | 58c | 17.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on February 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 37°F or below on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 52°F or higher on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on February 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.