Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dc6715a6e7946a526de0163eff0edcf27106ed9bd6e66de65ec71dad4ff19f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- North Carolina Tar Heelsof Virginia Cavaliers, North Carolina Tar Heels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x50be…371bbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 54c | 3,727$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,727.44 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 53c | 2,529$1,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,341.15 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 53c | 1,277$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.45 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…fba7backed Virginia Cavaliers | 53c | 900$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 48c | 815.89$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.53 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0f…f3e6backed Virginia Cavaliers | 52c | 800$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Virginia Cavaliers | 47c | 750$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 497 | 46.5%231 W · 266 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Virginia Cavaliers | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 47c | 352.76$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.19 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…0f82backed Virginia Cavaliers | 53c | 314.75$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.82 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 49c | 299.99$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Virginia Cavaliers | 19c | 127.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…1787backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 164 | 45.1%74 W · 90 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 47c | 46.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…7eb9backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 53c | 37.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 349 | 52.1%182 W · 167 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 47c | 24.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 668 | 31.4%210 W · 458 L | -43.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Virginia Cavaliers | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-6.5)this page
- North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Virginia CavaliersNorth Carolina Tar Heels won
- North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 148.5Over won
- North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 149.5Over won
- North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 150.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.