College Football · resolved market
Spread: Arizona (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7df2e3b38a584983d0d964a80f7466f210de157c318058ddb143aa4d92572bed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houstonof Arizona, Houston
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Houston | 51c | 11,457$5,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,613.95 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Arizona | 49c | 6,333$3,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,101.19 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Arizona | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Arizona | 49c | 816.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Arizona | 49c | 410$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.9 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Arizona | 48c | 83.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Houston | 51c | 81.18$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Arizona | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Houston | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Houston | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Houston | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44ff…9bd1backed Houston | 52c | 37.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…8c92backed Houston | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -8.1wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…c01cbacked Arizona | 49c | 32.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca9…cb3dbacked Houston | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -7.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Arizona | 49c | 28.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8178…775cbacked Arizona | 49c | 26.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 53cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf11e…c8d6backed Houston | 52c | 20.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbeb…0afcbacked Arizona | 49c | 20.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…3899backed Houston | 52c | 19.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona (-1.5)this page
- Arizona vs. HoustonHouston won
- O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: Houston (-1.5)Houston won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.