Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e0cbd10d9001222440f1a60914f1942c047d09cfb177e2ade4e1353f682789e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MH Maccabi Tel Avivof Aston Villa FC, MH Maccabi Tel Aviv
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5137…1556backed MH Maccabi Tel Aviv | 63c | 1,684$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.87 | 92 | 27.2%25 W · 67 L | -11.8wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -43%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Aston Villa FC | 38c | 1,329$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed MH Maccabi Tel Aviv | 62c | 1,265$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.56 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…dac9backed Aston Villa FC | 37c | 1,000$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.9 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…ed83backed Aston Villa FC | 37c | 536.65$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed MH Maccabi Tel Aviv | 64c | 413$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.79 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked MH Maccabi Tel Aviv | 68c | 400$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed MH Maccabi Tel Aviv | 63c | 234.15$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.13 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90d…97e5backed Aston Villa FC | 36c | 199.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +59%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95db…dc65backed Aston Villa FC | 38c | 156.14$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Aston Villa FC | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Aston Villa FC | 36c | 139.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Aston Villa FC | 37c | 135$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0071…32dfbacked Aston Villa FC | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6b…7b61backed Aston Villa FC | 31c | 125$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…8f51backed Aston Villa FC | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked MH Maccabi Tel Aviv | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70b0…b71fbacked Aston Villa FC | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…c19dbacked MH Maccabi Tel Aviv | 63c | 28.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3600…606fbacked Aston Villa FC | 38c | 26.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed MH Maccabi Tel Aviv | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)this page
- Aston Villa FC vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Aston Villa FC vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.