Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e45e86cf642ce93a60dc15807de3e4fffbf56a0c06cc0ffc2d373ce57d8291a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c9…b92fbacked Yes | 0c | 9,265$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 3,211$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.82 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…31e3backed Yes | 2c | 2,123$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 75c | 1,948$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.37 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xd15d…7832backed Yes | 2c | 1,022$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 530.29$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.94 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 261.83$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 71c | 250$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 49c | 200$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked No | 76c | 196.2$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.09 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 48c | 179.64$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.33 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 138.21$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 12c | 104.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 54c | 83.9$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 35c | 79.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 74.18$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 71c | 56.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 29c | 55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f7…93a4backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Yes | 36c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed Yes | 45c | 24.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 76c | 21.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.