Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or higher on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ec0fb1a7ef95a91ec21f7edb3a6d587787b22b50c8fadebc74108e1c8124647
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 513.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked Yes | 70c | 456.75$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.51 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 9c | 309.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 23c | 209.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 12c | 199.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 65c | 169.77$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.22 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed No | 35c | 157.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c79…8e0abacked No | 13c | 155.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…f0fdbacked No | 7c | 155.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…aff3backed No | 8c | 147.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 13c | 142.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…d075backed No | 35c | 141.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 75c | 128.22$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc3…023dbacked Yes | 65c | 127.92$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 27c | 119.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 65c | 119.48$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 32c | 110.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…0847backed No | 41c | 103.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe21a…3292backed No | 16c | 101.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 26c | 95.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed No | 21c | 83.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 39c | 79.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 41c | 74.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 71c | 72.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 59c | 50.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 67c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ab…931fbacked No | 23c | 49.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 62c | 48.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed No | 32c | 47.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd979…4a18backed Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e7…b41bbacked Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 79c | 36.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Yes | 63c | 31.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c2…864dbacked No | 39c | 31.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc6…1a3ebacked Yes | 65c | 30.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 76c | 28.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 57c | 22.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 63c | 22.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 66c | 20.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31be…f77dbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or higher on March 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.