NHL · resolved market
Red Wings vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7eef3979ea3b430cb6316d593d1ae5bdf245195c6205c2d226f188fe4a179307
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Over | 46c | 993.38$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.95 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 47c | 630.43$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.07 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Over | 46c | 619.96$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.98 | 976 | 51.6%504 W · 472 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba81…dc35backed Under | 55c | 593$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.85 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 45c | 579$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.71 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dc…3cc7backed Under | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 67c | 526$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.86 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 53c | 490.06$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.33 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 48c | 256$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.31 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 9c | 216$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.56 | 217 | 4.1%9 W · 208 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…fc18backed Under | 55c | 200.05$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.55 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 52c | 198.94$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.49 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 55c | 120$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 68c | 117.92$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 58c | 101.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 68c | 101.08$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07bd…5d79backed Over | 42c | 101$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Under | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e54…5fdfbacked Over | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 210 | 60%126 W · 84 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3550…54e2backed Over | 48c | 93.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.3wins | -0.39per pick | 48cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 87.74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Over | 24c | 85.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed Under | 52c | 79.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 246 | 54.5%134 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 47c | 79.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 45c | 47.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 44c | 47.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 74c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Under | 54c | 40.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 279 | 52%145 W · 134 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…99e5backed Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 79c | 22.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 53c | 21.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 308 | 59.4%183 W · 125 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Red Wings vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5this page
- Red Wings vs. BruinsBruins won
- Spread: Bruins (-1.5)Bruins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.