Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ef541108dc153c9ed169b1d25f555bcecf3dac02d94c283c5c98bed04d3f472
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 4c | 1,102$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 57c | 1,045$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.32 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 22c | 255.03$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 23c | 229.65$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 71c | 200.99$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 79c | 126.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 108.33$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 36c | 103.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.62 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5309…4c9cbacked No | 14c | 98.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 41c | 90.69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 41c | 87.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 40c | 82.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 47c | 76.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 42c | 73.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 40c | 71.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 80c | 70.25$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 48c | 69.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 34c | 65.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 44c | 57.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 44c | 52.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 22c | 50.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 43c | 47.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 39c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 28c | 42.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…0b12backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b33…70a8backed Yes | 44c | 39.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 43c | 35.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 45c | 33.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 32.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138a…8197backed Yes | 76c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 34c | 29.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 54c | 22.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 57c | 21.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 61c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f4…4a91backed No | 55c | 20.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 56c | 19.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 59c | 17.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 68c | 14.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 80c | 12.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.59 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.