Premier League · resolved market
Swansea City AFC vs. Portsmouth FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f06ab388f31d2e009aec8ef6f58c56e8fd0591b5a849dcb64a7d0fbf680bede
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 69c | 198.75$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.64 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Under | 28c | 146$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.12 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Under | 28c | 138$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.36 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Under | 28c | 110$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf86a…9ed1backed Over | 72c | 97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…4167backed Over | 41c | 80.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…7d27backed Over | 72c | 78$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…7ca5backed Over | 72c | 62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Under | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97de…15eabacked Over | 72c | 53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 31c | 47.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…a337backed Over | 72c | 43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed Under | 28c | 38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…7f8cbacked Over | 72c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…a3d3backed Over | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89fe…4293backed Over | 72c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…0c24backed Over | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…0c60backed Over | 72c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ff…db1dbacked Over | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Swansea City AFC vs. Portsmouth FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Swansea City AFC (-1.5)Portsmouth FC won
- Swansea City AFC vs. Portsmouth FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Swansea City AFC vs. Portsmouth FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Swansea City AFC vs. Portsmouth FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.