Tennis · resolved market
ITF Astana: Riku Takahata vs Kasidit Samrej
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f81ef0274569934c34982b3599f869e1e6b4b247b632588e54c148ce9169c8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kasidit Samrejof Riku Takahata, Kasidit Samrej
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kasidit Samrej | 66c | 1,268$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.04 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cfe…62c5backed Riku Takahata | 28c | 1,073$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…acd4backed Riku Takahata | 50c | 903.39$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d74…f2abbacked Riku Takahata | 28c | 531.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 433 | 34.9%151 W · 282 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kasidit Samrej | 65c | 322.26$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.54 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34f…1cfabacked Riku Takahata | 42c | 238.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Kasidit Samrej | 64c | 188.35$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.21 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Kasidit Samrej | 68c | 96.31$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 431 | 44.8%193 W · 238 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa11…650bbacked Riku Takahata | 12c | 91.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Kasidit Samrej | 67c | 82.96$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 223 | 35.4%79 W · 144 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Kasidit Samrej | 70c | 79.94$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Kasidit Samrej | 54c | 54.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…189abacked Kasidit Samrej | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x061a…5a89backed Kasidit Samrej | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 521 | 57%297 W · 224 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Kasidit Samrej | 65c | 38.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Riku Takahata | 57c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d34…d7b5backed Kasidit Samrej | 60c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 525 | 52.4%275 W · 250 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Kasidit Samrej | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.