South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CD Riestra: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fc3b06fd86737bac29e87ef4b0289b22018e0510e3f42666aabb0e0f2c751b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 16c | 4,501$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.9 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 4c | 701.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 8c | 671$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 184 | 26.1%48 W · 136 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Under | 71c | 585.8$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.88 | 213 | 66.7%142 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 74c | 243.21$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9c…601abacked Over | 18c | 185$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Over | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 28c | 36.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…1ca6backed Under | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fc…097ebacked Under | 72c | 19.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 180 | 50%90 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CD Riestra: O/U 2.5this page
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CD Riestra: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CD Riestra: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CD Riestra: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CD Riestra: CD Riestra 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CD Riestra: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CD Riestra: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CD Riestra: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CD Riestra: O/U 4.5Under won
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CD Riestra: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CA Newell's Old Boys (-1.5)CA Newell's Old Boys won
- Spread: CA Newell's Old Boys (-2.5)CD Riestra won
- Spread: CD Riestra (-1.5)CA Newell's Old Boys won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.