La Liga · resolved market
Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Draw at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fcd2d50bbb1b410f947d4c0ee7afc927b296bc4e36f9248f671075ea3c1f516
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 75c | 213.27$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.74 | 1,508 | 38.7%583 W · 925 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed No | 55c | 199.97$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 169 | 62.1%105 W · 64 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 44c | 173.32$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 744 | 57.5%428 W · 316 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 56c | 128.95$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.17 | 1,081 | 50.6%547 W · 534 L | +11.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 44c | 89.2$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Yes | 45c | 71.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 175 | 37.1%65 W · 110 L | -16.2wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -22%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc4…0fd1backed Yes | 45c | 61.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 55c | 40.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.8wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a16…5f47backed No | 55c | 29.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Draw at halftime?this page
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid leading at halftime?No won
- Valencia CF leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.