Tennis · resolved market
ITF Segrate: Michele Mecarelli vs Martin Van Der Meerschen
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fe86a89e3d455035ea034ba861b9cdc27773e1d8361a013ccb73df668424efa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Martin Van Der Meerschenof Michele Mecarelli, Martin Van Der Meerschen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Michele Mecarelli | 54c | 6,690$3,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,644.35 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Martin Van Der Meerschen | 44c | 6,300$2,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,518.99 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Michele Mecarelli | 44c | 1,117$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.27 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Martin Van Der Meerschen | 54c | 918.59$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.59 | 624 | 57.7%360 W · 264 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…4dd6backed Martin Van Der Meerschen | 56c | 783.93$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.93 | 579 | 50.9%295 W · 284 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Michele Mecarelli | 23c | 388.07$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.96 | 359 | 32.6%117 W · 242 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Michele Mecarelli | 33c | 246.52$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.52 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Martin Van Der Meerschen | 51c | 240.95$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.06 | 323 | 29.7%96 W · 227 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Michele Mecarelli | 47c | 231.72$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.91 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d24…f379backed Michele Mecarelli | 39c | 146.67$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 361 | 54%195 W · 166 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Michele Mecarelli | 68c | 146.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd1…f311backed Michele Mecarelli | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 255 | 51%130 W · 125 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Michele Mecarelli | 49c | 114.35$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.52 | 394 | 46.7%184 W · 210 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Michele Mecarelli | 48c | 101.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 291 | 49.5%144 W · 147 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x634a…dddfbacked Martin Van Der Meerschen | 44c | 75.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 306 | 47.7%146 W · 160 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…57adbacked Martin Van Der Meerschen | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…23acbacked Michele Mecarelli | 72c | 58.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 617 | 55.9%345 W · 272 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Michele Mecarelli | 74c | 57.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c10…30f1backed Michele Mecarelli | 70c | 53.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.9wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Martin Van Der Meerschen | 59c | 52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc19…31c4backed Martin Van Der Meerschen | 46c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 325 | 46.2%150 W · 175 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8509…fd97backed Martin Van Der Meerschen | 53c | 27.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…9a94backed Michele Mecarelli | 57c | 27.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Martin Van Der Meerschen | 52c | 23.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…ab8fbacked Michele Mecarelli | 68c | 15.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ITF Segrate: Michele Mecarelli vs Martin Van Der Meerschenthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Mecarelli vs MeerschenMecarelli won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.