Premier League · resolved market
Will Watford FC win on 2025-12-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8090a65af2835c5eb087655f677538053bbea468c0c94755f427159c674479f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x869b…c625backed Yes | 46c | 34,199$15,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,481.83 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +35%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 56c | 25,000$14,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,000 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Yes | 44c | 23,534$10,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,179.04 | 211 | 54.5%115 W · 96 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 54c | 9,930$5,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,362.2 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 55c | 7,679$4,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,230.69 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 54c | 6,782$3,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,649.47 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 18c | 5,999$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.78 | 506 | 44.3%224 W · 282 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 66c | 5,849$3,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,015.07 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 54c | 3,396$1,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,832.43 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590 | 481 | 50.9%245 W · 236 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 7c | 2,426$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.57 | 202 | 39.6%80 W · 122 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 54c | 1,380$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.16 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae5…f51dbacked Yes | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.04 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 78c | 1,000$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.32 | 670 | 42.2%283 W · 387 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 54c | 682$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.52 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 49c | 620$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.2 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 42c | 250.57$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.31 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 8c | 248.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 614 | 41.2%253 W · 361 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8da…cad3backed No | 55c | 217.39$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.39 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae9…74acbacked No | 11c | 203.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked No | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 114 | 43.9%50 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 48c | 197.92$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.92 | 495 | 44.2%219 W · 276 L | -20.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9c…d01bbacked Yes | 47c | 170.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.21 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed No | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 432 | 41.9%181 W · 251 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaadd…7358backed Yes | 35c | 108.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 114 | 20.2%23 W · 91 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 54c | 75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa973…f639backed Yes | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 25c | 52.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1,163 | 57.4%667 W · 496 L | +40.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 182 | 51.6%94 W · 88 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 55c | 49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 359 | 41.5%149 W · 210 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 48c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 54c | 30.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 307 | 39.4%121 W · 186 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…c85dbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Yes | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe5cbacked Yes | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…58f7backed No | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed Yes | 44c | 23.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 401 | 57.6%231 W · 170 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed No | 58c | 22.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Watford FC win on 2025-12-20?this page
- Will Stoke City FC win on 2025-12-20?No won
- Will Watford FC vs. Stoke City FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.