NHL · resolved market
Spread: Devils (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x809b71fa715f395aaf50bb8028832df077d5a09a19a16172e7943b1eaecf195a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penguinsof Devils, Penguins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Devils | 36c | 284.75$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.32 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Penguins | 68c | 249.75$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Penguins | 73c | 171$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Penguins | 73c | 147$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked Penguins | 72c | 115$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Penguins | 71c | 53.45$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…a8edbacked Devils | 27c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…05afbacked Devils | 27c | 47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.29per pick | 42cpaid | -75%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…042fbacked Devils | 27c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…97cebacked Devils | 27c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d6…ac41backed Devils | 29c | 41.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed Devils | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Penguins | 36c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Penguins | 73c | 34.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Penguins | 74c | 22.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Devils (-1.5)this page
- Devils vs. PenguinsPenguins won
- Devils vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.