World Politics · resolved market
Mexican Presidential Election: Will Claudia Sheinbaum win?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80e14125844dcb3dd3885290bc0a03626223a92b3a704ba10363d250e8640b86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $747,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $844,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $747,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c6d…e27bbacked No | 6c | 72,391$4,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,083.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c0…d46dbacked No | 5c | 64,263$3,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,177.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…4b13backed No | 7c | 59,340$4,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,399.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…53a9backed No | 4c | 28,985$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…9cbabacked No | 8c | 25,223$1,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,940.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…1ac5backed No | 5c | 9,535$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad5…f3cbbacked No | 10c | 9,492$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe729…6dffbacked No | 5c | 8,910$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a59…4cf5backed No | 13c | 7,698$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd5…7e96backed No | 13c | 6,066$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0485…103ebacked No | 8c | 5,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 6cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8d…d01dbacked No | 9c | 5,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9e…74aebacked No | 7c | 4,286$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8b…fce7backed No | 8c | 3,028$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d58…f84bbacked No | 8c | 2,283$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a71…1e7bbacked No | 7c | 2,089$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af9…eeeabacked No | 8c | 1,886$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…caa7backed No | 7c | 1,533$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +265.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74a4…91a0backed No | 14c | 1,496$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ee…7fe2backed No | 6c | 1,458$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…9687backed No | 8c | 1,342$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c4…ad2dbacked No | 11c | 1,259$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…a9f2backed No | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d18…e0e4backed No | 10c | 997.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…daf5backed No | 10c | 950$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd063…1df5backed No | 7c | 463.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a20…db27backed No | 12c | 452.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…1b9bbacked No | 9c | 335.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3537…f9a9backed No | 6c | 314.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…ea85backed No | 7c | 204.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…f4aabacked No | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…7e92backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a4…1fa2backed No | 6c | 166.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeadf…2660backed No | 9c | 163.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mexican Presidential Election: Will Claudia Sheinbaum win?this page
- Mexican Presidential Election: Will Jorge Álvarez Máynez win?No won
- Mexican Presidential Election: Will Xóchitl Gálvez win?No won
- Mexican Presidential Election: Will another candidate win?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.