TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Mexican Presidential Election: Will Xóchitl Gálvez win?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$686,503
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$619,476

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $686,503 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8490…4b13backed Yes8c42,110$3,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,250.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a59…4cf5backed Yes5c41,607$2,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,144.4630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa842…2788backed Yes9c30,422$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,599.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ac…09dabacked Yes10c27,660$2,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,721.120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaa48…df7ebacked Yes6c22,250$1,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,26810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c7f…dd56backed Yes9c21,946$2,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,052.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fb4…9cbabacked Yes8c21,361$1,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,803.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90d2…e935backed Yes16c18,558$2,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,949.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0485…103ebacked Yes10c15,000$1,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,510728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick6cpaid+138.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe729…6dffbacked Yes11c13,973$1,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,54920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd4e…1ac5backed Yes6c12,849$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa8d…d01dbacked Yes5c12,758$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d9…c71ebacked Yes2c9,299$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7c0…d46dbacked Yes2c8,587$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7aff…2b14backed Yes3c8,359$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f86…0c47backed Yes13c7,851$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb581…17fbbacked Yes9c7,561$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb8b…fce7backed Yes11c6,776$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd731…7e75backed Yes11c6,775$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaad5…f3cbbacked Yes15c6,579$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bdb…8b1abacked Yes13c6,518$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x66f2…a943backed Yes8c6,108$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.06425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-64.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x070c…9d0cbacked Yes2c5,699$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a20…db27backed Yes11c5,392$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes2c5,209$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.4840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0509…9687backed Yes3c4,752$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x941c…1d58backed Yes13c4,632$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2f23…b19ebacked Yes7c4,624$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9df7…a52fbacked Yes8c4,186$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32be…aebdbacked Yes8c3,507$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57c9…f4cebacked Yes1c3,189$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4123…229cbacked Yes14c2,723$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad9…89d8backed Yes2c2,665$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea3f…7917backed Yes11c2,634$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cee…043abacked Yes7c2,366$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8ca…2d7ebacked Yes12c2,248$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1d58…f84bbacked Yes14c2,140$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5f…c683backed Yes2c2,102$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc327…53a9backed Yes11c2,000$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0398…ba1abacked Yes9c1,769$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64a2…67e1backed Yes14c1,756$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0d6…2109backed Yes11c1,717$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd06b…e7eebacked Yes15c1,599$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42be…5b35backed Yes13c1,510$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb2d0…a376backed Yes13c1,505$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x088b…ef0bbacked Yes14c1,462$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c3c…f150backed Yes6c1,359$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.7630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82e4…6c3dbacked Yes11c1,294$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05c5…73e1backed Yes4c1,281$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.38425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-68.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x74a4…91a0backed Yes14c1,270$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8d…36cdbacked Yes7c1,267$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd930…da01backed Yes8c1,261$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9354…b4fcbacked Yes9c1,204$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47f5…2ae9backed Yes12c1,180$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4709…2779backed Yes11c1,163$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a71…1e7bbacked Yes9c1,113$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34ae…d4ddbacked Yes15c1,020$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x994f…401ebacked Yes12c956.58$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5bdb…e590backed Yes13c898.61$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac35…6213backed Yes13c795.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb5d1…7ec5backed Yes12c756.3$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbf5a…ba88backed Yes7c714.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1af…ca6cbacked Yes7c705.71$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2af9…eeeabacked Yes7c703.38$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97fb…7c06backed Yes10c666.67$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92df…8dd8backed Yes5c634.74$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb2…9276backed Yes8c609.98$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2470…3ca6backed Yes15c600$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9156…90ccbacked Yes32c599.67$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1136…3555backed Yes5c536.25$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb42a…b2f9backed Yes8c524.86$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09c0…ee77backed Yes7c504.56$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19b9…fe4abacked Yes11c462.73$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2212…9ddabacked Yes6c457.22$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c4…ad2dbacked Yes9c428.59$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82ee…7fe2backed Yes4c423.95$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0467…057fbacked Yes5c416.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa005…1ae8backed Yes7c407.33$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffed…447bbacked Yes14c398.27$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3397…fe08backed Yes7c369.86$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+127.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5db…984abacked Yes15c337.84$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d86…db78backed Yes7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09b8…8860backed Yes10c278.51$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe36…f698backed Yes8c195.75$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeef6…4f9dbacked Yes11c149.92$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x912e…a021backed Yes9c112.47$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac9b…439bbacked Yes16c81.01$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1201…1b9bbacked Yes27c37$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6af…e12fbacked No70c32$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.