Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x811642b79d8619454a2e0dabca0d1a47adcdc90d1c15e447726deee3ae5857ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yellow Submarineof Team Lynx, Yellow Submarine
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked Yellow Submarine | 42c | 604.21$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.18 | 802 | 56%449 W · 353 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Yellow Submarine | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Team Lynx | 46c | 398.44$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.53 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf8…7d2bbacked Team Lynx | 65c | 379.77$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.85 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Team Lynx | 55c | 98.26$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked Team Lynx | 45c | 96.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Lynx | 47c | 96.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Team Lynx | 60c | 67.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Yellow Submarine | 41c | 66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Lynx | 46c | 60.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…23a6backed Yellow Submarine | 61c | 46.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 169 | 39.6%67 W · 102 L | -15.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…85c0backed Yellow Submarine | 57c | 42.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 228 | 68%155 W · 73 L | +15.4wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x449f…f386backed Yellow Submarine | 56c | 42.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.37per pick | 50cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - European Pro League Group AYellow Submarine won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 WinnerYellow Submarine won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.