MLB · resolved market
Royals vs. Rays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x811ac276944e3c1ca6b273b2e9b331797f064c4d75bf76e911904d2e6ea79c75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Royalsof Royals, Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x751e…3b9dbacked Royals | 40c | 49,300$19,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,580 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ee…dd52backed Rays | 60c | 49,300$29,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,588.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Rays | 60c | 35,822$21,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,493.28 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ad…208ebacked Royals | 40c | 15,000$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,000 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Royals | 40c | 10,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,000 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Royals | 40c | 8,000$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,800 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…6f55backed Royals | 40c | 2,532$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,518.98 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Royals | 62c | 2,306$1,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.24 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Rays | 61c | 1,267$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.75 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Rays | 60c | 997.27$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Royals | 39c | 900$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Royals | 40c | 729.17$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.5 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Rays | 61c | 360$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.6 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…d9a9backed Rays | 61c | 249.98$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.49 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Royals | 39c | 235.61$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.72 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Rays | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Rays | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Royals | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…35f0backed Rays | 60c | 120$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 157 | 57.3%90 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Royals | 38c | 107.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.43 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Rays | 62c | 107.14$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.43 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Rays | 59c | 50.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Royals | 41c | 37.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Rays | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Rays | 61c | 16.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.