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UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Who will win - Garcia vs. Choi

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Garciaof Garcia, Choi
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,052
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,038

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,052 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ffb…a834backed Choi40c1,326$531 inLost-$530.52933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-46.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e82…64abbacked Garcia60c1,326$796 inWon+$530.52757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a50…8fc2backed Choi43c461.72$200 inLost-$200475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+59.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x438d…3ec8backed Choi37c332.84$123 inLost-$123.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dfb…165cbacked Choi37c208.26$77 inLost-$77.05333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Choi37c103.81$38 inLost-$38.411233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-36.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1918…7c81backed Garcia63c100$63 inWon+$37250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7cb…b857backed Choi39c85.74$33 inLost-$33.21553.3%8 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc35…0ba7backed Garcia60c70$42 inWon+$28850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b55…02f8backed Choi36c45.62$17 inLost-$16.543652.8%19 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5554…498dbacked Garcia62c32.26$20 inWon+$12.264100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+78.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x50e8…d5b9backed Garcia63c28.57$18 inWon+$10.57250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf782…ccadbacked Garcia63c28.57$18 inWon+$10.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8a8…4f59backed Garcia63c28.57$18 inWon+$10.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xadc7…b2f2backed Garcia78c28$22 inWon+$6.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81a3…7e2cbacked Garcia63c26.98$17 inWon+$9.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3750…47b9backed Garcia63c26.98$17 inWon+$9.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd1d…b57fbacked Garcia64c26.22$17 inWon+$9.56966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick67cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe518…c987backed Garcia63c25.4$16 inWon+$9.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1a2…71b5backed Garcia63c23.81$15 inWon+$8.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfff1…39fdbacked Garcia63c23.81$15 inWon+$8.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d15…795ebacked Garcia63c22.22$14 inWon+$8.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd281…61e8backed Garcia63c20.63$13 inWon+$7.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa77f…a9efbacked Garcia61c19.67$12 inWon+$7.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x302f…d81fbacked Garcia62c19.35$12 inWon+$7.35540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22a9…ffa2backed Garcia63c19.05$12 inWon+$7.052100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde53…5d01backed Garcia63c17.46$11 inWon+$6.46250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb229…a83dbacked Garcia63c17.46$11 inWon+$6.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fe2…1764backed Garcia63c17.46$11 inWon+$6.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd7…a998backed Garcia64c15.63$10 inWon+$5.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ff…9dacbacked Garcia64c15.63$10 inWon+$5.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x78bb…3f8bbacked Garcia64c15.63$10 inWon+$5.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.