UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Who will win - Choi vs. Algeo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4e704503bd2ad6286704a2b0dfc67eb859565adc732bc48a4ff6c8bb4288b41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Choiof Choi, Algeo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf0b…ea52backed Choi | 41c | 1,339$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +146.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Algeo | 59c | 691.27$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.85 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…64abbacked Algeo | 60c | 650$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a50…8fc2backed Choi | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Algeo | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae5…4131backed Algeo | 62c | 403.18$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…197cbacked Algeo | 58c | 379.17$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.92 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…6f77backed Algeo | 64c | 156.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c41…deedbacked Algeo | 62c | 119.35$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1918…7c81backed Algeo | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e38…a1f1backed Choi | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked Algeo | 62c | 68.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked Algeo | 63c | 62.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Algeo | 60c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…b987backed Choi | 37c | 55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed Choi | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302f…d81fbacked Algeo | 63c | 25.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Who will win - Choi vs. Algeothis page
- UFC Fight Night: Who will win - Durden vs. SilvaSilva won
- UFC Fight Night: Who will win - Garcia vs. ChoiGarcia won
- UFC Fight Night: Who will win - Holobaugh vs. KruschewskyHolobaugh won
- UFC Fight Night: Who will win - Lemos vs. JandirobaJandiroba won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.