Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Nova Esports - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x822ba6e7a5a69eb6548bddc360fdc4b1e5138c59eae0de253457a3f4d0f59e72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- XLG Gamingof XLG Gaming, Nova Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b3c…0518backed Nova Esports | 14c | 1,008$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.32 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ac…2a18backed XLG Gaming | 60c | 711.19$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.13 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Nova Esports | 15c | 339.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 266 | 34.6%92 W · 174 L | -13.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcc…9f91backed Nova Esports | 7c | 309.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 600 | 22.7%136 W · 464 L | -26.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Nova Esports | 12c | 161.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 702 | 51.3%360 W · 342 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Nova Esports | 29c | 121.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 264 | 36%95 W · 169 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Nova Esports | 20c | 79.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 450 | 33.8%152 W · 298 L | -35.6wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Nova Esports | 40c | 66.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 998 | 46%459 W · 539 L | -27.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaac…7670backed Nova Esports | 18c | 56.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Nova Esports | 40c | 50.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 308 | 28.2%87 W · 221 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…1c86backed Nova Esports | 40c | 36.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -6.7wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -53%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x892b…b4fabacked Nova Esports | 35c | 35.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Nova Esports | 40c | 29.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -16.1wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed XLG Gaming | 67c | 28.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x754d…7c7bbacked XLG Gaming | 66c | 20.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Nova Esports - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs Nova Esports (+1.5)XLG Gaming won
- Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Nova Esports (BO3) - VCT China Group OmegaXLG Gaming won
- Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Nova Esports - Map 1 WinnerXLG Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.