Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Nova Esports (BO3) - VCT China Group Omega
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbc24234fcb434b8492dd2b0eea42663d788bc684e507da20ca33f8a4a8930ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- XLG Gamingof XLG Gaming, Nova Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,946
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,946 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Nova Esports | 12c | 5,541$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.11 | 417 | 34.8%145 W · 272 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x697f…b756backed Nova Esports | 15c | 3,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed Nova Esports | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Nova Esports | 15c | 1,883$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.47 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcc…9f91backed Nova Esports | 4c | 1,354$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 600 | 22.7%136 W · 464 L | -26.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5984…76ebbacked Nova Esports | 17c | 1,279$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.38 | 297 | 33.3%99 W · 198 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked Nova Esports | 17c | 1,148$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.17 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Nova Esports | 16c | 1,140$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.32 | 610 | 35.9%219 W · 391 L | -17.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bb…2823backed Nova Esports | 12c | 845.19$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2655…eaa4backed Nova Esports | 3c | 752.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Nova Esports | 17c | 555$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.35 | 339 | 42.2%143 W · 196 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc884…c422backed Nova Esports | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Nova Esports | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nova Esports | 3c | 470.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 1,417 | 51.3%727 W · 690 L | +49.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda46…d45bbacked Nova Esports | 10c | 465.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Nova Esports | 9c | 348.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nova Esports | 9c | 295.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 1,376 | 47.1%648 W · 728 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6159…cf6ebacked Nova Esports | 7c | 270.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…c4c2backed Nova Esports | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6f…d78bbacked Nova Esports | 7c | 250$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed Nova Esports | 17c | 97.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c4…26f2backed Nova Esports | 16c | 76.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a35…6fe0backed XLG Gaming | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 156 | 42.3%66 W · 90 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Nova Esports (BO3) - VCT China Group Omegathis page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs Nova Esports (+1.5)XLG Gaming won
- Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Nova Esports - Map 1 WinnerXLG Gaming won
- Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Nova Esports - Map 2 WinnerXLG Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.